Phoenix Multifamily Market Update: What the Latest Reports Are Saying

Phoenix Multifamily 2026: What the Latest Market Data Shows

The Phoenix multifamily market is shifting. Two of the most closely watched data sources — Berkadia and ABI Multifamily — just released their latest reports, and the numbers tell a consistent story.

Supply Is Pulling Back

After several years of record apartment deliveries, new construction is decelerating. Berkadia projects total apartment completions will fall more than 31% in 2026 compared to 2025. ABI reports 4,674 units were delivered in Q1, with 34,428 still under construction and 15,811 in planned projects — but the peak of the supply wave appears to be behind us.

Rents Are Stabilizing

Average effective rent across the Phoenix MSA came in at $1,479 in Q1 2026, per ABI — down $42 year-over-year from Q1 2025's $1,521. However, Berkadia forecasts rent will end 2026 up 1.3% from year-end 2025, marking the first year of positive rent growth after three consecutive years of declines. Rent as a share of household income is also projected to dip to 17.9% by Q4 2026, suggesting renters are becoming slightly less cost-burdened as incomes grow.

Occupancy Is Holding — And Improving

Despite the construction pipeline, occupancy is trending in the right direction. ABI reports average occupancy across Phoenix MSA properties at 94.4% in Q1 2026, up 0.4% from Q1 2025. Berkadia projects occupancy will land at 93.4% by year-end on stabilized properties. Average absorption is running at approximately 930 units per month, indicating demand is keeping pace with supply.

Employment and Population Growth Remain Strong

Phoenix's demand story is still intact. Berkadia projects 28,600 new households will form in the metro in 2026, fueled by continued in-migration from higher-cost West Coast markets. The metro's unemployment rate sits at 3.5% per ABI, and median household income is projected to reach $99,231 by year-end — up 3.8% year-over-year. A major driver of future demand is TSMC's $165 billion semiconductor campus in the northwest Valley, which has committed to hiring 12,000 workers across its construction phases and is already spurring apartment development in adjacent submarkets like Deer Valley and Peoria/Sun City/Surprise.

Investment Sales Are Accelerating

Transaction activity picked up meaningfully in Q1 2026. ABI reports total multifamily transaction volume of $742M for the quarter — up 17.4% from Q1 2025. The 100+ unit segment generated $584M in volume, while the 10–99 unit segment saw a 135.7% year-over-year jump to $158M. Average price per unit in the smaller asset segment rose 22.9% year-over-year to $226,751, a signal that buyer confidence in the sector is returning.

The Bigger Picture

Taken together, the data points to a market working through its supply correction and beginning to rebalance. Declining completions, stabilizing rents, improving occupancy, strong household formation, and rising transaction volume all suggest Phoenix multifamily is in a better position heading into the second half of 2026 than it was a year ago.